隐性杠杆约束、流动性风险和投资者情绪

本文以2003—2019年间开放式主动管理型的股票型和偏股型基金为样本,以持仓占比为权重估算基金投组中A股的总市场风险暴露,检验结果表明,该序列上升反映了基金面临的隐性杠杆约束收紧,刻画了市场的弱流动性。内在逻辑在于,流动性收紧时,投资者难以通过融资直接增加杠杆,更倾向于重仓持有高市场风险头寸的股票而间接实现杠杆。本文发现隐性杠杆约束所刻画的风险在股票或基金收益截面上的无条件定价基本失效,而条件定价则依赖于低市场情绪与弱流动性。分解基金持股的敞口,进一步发现,因中小盘基金在流动性收紧时具有更强的流动性偏好,其持股的市场风险头寸能够更敏锐地捕捉到弱流动性风险。     

Leverage effect on stochastic volatility for option pricing in Hong Kong: A simulation and empirical study

This paper explores the importance of incorporating the financial leverage effect in the stochastic volatility models when pricing options. For the illustrative purpose, we first conduct the simulation experiment by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling method. We then make an empirical analysis by applying the volatility models to the real return data of the Hang Seng index during the period from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2017. Our results highlight the accuracy of the stochastic volatility models with leverage in option pricing when leverage is high. In addition, the leverage effect becomes more significant as the maturity of options increases. Moreover, leverage affects the pricing of in-the-money options more than that of at-the-money and out-of-money options. Our study is therefore useful for both asset pricing and portfolio investment in the Hong Kong market where volatility is an inherent nature of the economy.     

Managing leverage of infrastructure projects: Aggregate and sectoral risk effect

Funding for infrastructure projects recently shows that debt has a portion more than equity, triggering public debates. Therefore, leverage as an instrument to measure the ability and willingness of project sponsors to fund becomes the utmost importance to discuss. Relating to leverage, risk and government participation are two main factors that can explain the choice of funding decisions by the project sponsors. For this reason, this study would analyze the effect of risk and government participation on leverage through the two main sectors of infrastructure projects, namely the transportation sector and the energy sector, and derivating risk to political risk and financial risk. The objects of research were 976 infrastructure projects listed in the Asian Development Bank during 2007−2016. We use censored regression to examine the model by infrastructure sectors, both as individual and through interaction effects. The analysis showed that overall, leverage of infrastructure projects was rather influenced by financial risk than by political risk. However, the leverage of infrastructure projects in the transportation sector was more vulnerable to risk than that in other sectors.     

电子信息工程专业实践教学模式改革研究

针对我校电子信息工程专业实战教学的现状，明确了实战教学的改革应坚持以能力培养为主线．并树立传授知识、培养能力、提高素质协调发展以及理论教学与实验教学统筹协调的理念；将实战教学的体系分为基础层、提高设计层、综合应用开发层、科技创新层四个层次．构建了一个集教与学为一体。课内、课外为一体，理论教学和实践教学为一体，实际实验和虚拟实验为一体，校内实践和校外实践为一体的多元实践教学模式。     

Scaledt分布、杠杆效应和上证综指的VaR风险

与正态分布相比，上证指数收益率的经验分布具有尖峰厚尾特征，但用Scaled t-分布比正态分布可以更好地拟合上证指数收益率的经验分布。本文以Scaled t-分布假设下的GJR模型为基础，测量了上证指数收益率波动性的杠杆效应，即信息对波动性的不对称影响：并根据GJR模型应用Monte Carlo模拟方法，测定上证指数日收益率和持有期收益率的风险价值（VaR）。根据GJR模型提供的结果，上证指数30天、60天和90天持有期收益率的风险值分别为12．1％、17．8％、22．0％。用GJR模型比均值-方差模型和历史模拟方法计算的5％显著性水平VaR值更接近实际收益率。     

Asymmetric volatility in the foreign exchange markets

We examine the presence or absence of asymmetric volatility in the exchange rates of Australian dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR), British pound (GBP) and Japanese yen (JPY), all against US dollar. Our investigation is based on a variant of the heterogeneous autoregressive realized volatility model, using daily realized variance and return series from 1996 to 2004. We find that a depreciation against USD leads to significantly greater volatility than an appreciation for AUD and GBP, whereas the opposite is true for JPY. Relative to volatility on days following a positive one-standard-deviation return, volatility on days following a negative one-standard-deviation return is higher by 6.6% for AUD, 6.1% for GBP, and 21.2% for JPY. The realized volatility of EUR appears to be symmetric. These results are robust to the removal of jump component from realized volatility and the sub-samplings defined by structural-changes. The asymmetry in AUD, GBP and JPY appears to be embedded in the continuous component of realized volatility rather than the jump component.     

青年农民工市民化的制约因素分析

青年农民工市民化,是指他们在身份上获得城市居民相同的合法身份和社会权利的过程,最明显的标志是获得所在地的城市户口及相应的社会权利。但是在推进青年农民工市民化过程中,仍然存在着思想障碍、制度障碍、政策障碍、组织障碍、青年农民工自身素质障碍等方面的限制,制约了青年农民工市民化的顺利推进。     

给排水工程专业课程体系构造与网页制作

根据给排水工程专业特点,构造给排水专业的课程体系及其相互关系,制作课程体系信息库并应用Frontpage2000软件将其链接起来,在互联网上供本专业学生查阅,达到了指导、帮助学生综合利用自己所学知识进行课程预习、复习及毕业设计的目的.     

地方应用型本科院校金融工程专业产学研人才培养模式探索

地方应用型本科院校金融工程专业建设正面临着教育部差异化人才培养政策、国家供给侧改革战略和数字经济算能需求三大复杂环境,如何提升人才培养质量,是个紧迫的专业教育改革热点问题。文章基于产学研合作培养的制度基础、社会基础和技术基础,针对金融工程本科专业培养产学研制度、培养内容和实践进行了创新性探索。     

Estimation methods for stochastic volatility models: a survey

Abstract.  Although stochastic volatility (SV) models have an intuitive appeal, their empirical application has been limited mainly due to difficulties involved in their estimation. The main problem is that the likelihood function is hard to evaluate. However, recently, several new estimation methods have been introduced and the literature on SV models has grown substantially. In this article, we review this literature. We describe the main estimators of the parameters and the underlying volatilities focusing on their advantages and limitations both from the theoretical and empirical point of view. We complete the survey with an application of the most important procedures to the S&P 500 stock price index.